Georgia's political stalemate could end in violence

Georgia's political stalemate could end in violence
Mon May 11, 2009 1:59pm BST
http://uk.reuters.com/article/gc07/idUKTRE54A2GA20090511

By Matt Robinson -Analysis

TBILISI (Reuters) - The risk of violence is rising in Georgia after a month of political deadlock between a president determined to cling to power and an opposition which lacks the numbers and unity to unseat him.

President Mikheil Saakashvili, re-elected in January 2008 amid opposition allegations of fraud, has so far resisted demands to quit over his record on democracy and last year's disastrous war with Russia.

The United States and Russia, each for its own strategic reasons, are watching out for instability in the potentially volatile region. Georgia is a major conduit for the transit of Caspian gas and oil to Western markets.

Violence has already flared once at an evening protest in Tbilisi and analysts say Saakashvili must address opposition grievances if the political stalemate is to end peacefully, without mass unrest or a heavy police crackdown.

"The dilemma of this situation is that, on the one hand it is a continued and serious challenge that cannot be ignored," said Svante Cornell, research director at the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute.

"But on the other hand, it's not a challenge of the magnitude that would risk unseating the government, and therefore you have deadlock."

A brief, bloodless mutiny at a tank base last week also cast doubt over the loyalty of the military.

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